COVID-19 Page

Last updated Tuesday, April 28, 2020


COVID-19 Situation Awareness LINKS

These links to COVID-19 information articles and gateways open in new tab or window.

Default IHME curves are for the U.S. Click the button in the middle of the green bar and select your State from the pull-down list.

Key Insights

Major insight from the HealthData web site on the pandemic in the US is that we are over a week past the peak of the pandemic in the U.S. but are short of the containment phase.

The containment phase begins when number of new cases per day is small but is no longer decreasing. If precautions continue to minimize the spread of COVID-19, this should begin by June in most of the U.S. Paradoxically, some areas that were not hard-hit and which practice social distancing well have "flattened the curve" to the extent that infection rates in these areas, while never high, were delayed so that the start of the containment phase is also delayed.

Herd immunity is the state of the population having a high percentage of immune individuals, so that an infected person likely does not infect anyone and the disease dies out. When the U.S. achieves herd immunity, COVID-19 will die out like SARS or MERS, or become seasonal like colds and influenza. Without comprehensive testing, which is years away, we can only speculate on the basis of the results of available tests for antibodies. Articles are out there that do what they can with the data, like this one, and speculate that about 20% of the population has antibodies in places like New York, but that in areas that are not hard-hit by COVID-19 the fraction is much, much lower, on the order of 1%. On this basis, we must practice preventive behavior for years before herd immunity will come to rural America, so the only reasonable couse in the near term is universally available vaccination.

We should have vaccinations for everyone, like those for childhood diseases, smallpox, polio, etc. by the end of the year. After the initial activity to vaccinate everyone to achieve herd immunity, COVID-19 vaccination will be integrated into the schedule of vaccinations for everyone.


Health care recommendations to stay well:


Principal Pandemic Considerations

The "flatten the curve" principle has succeeded in keeping the mortality rate to a minimum in the U.S. But, relaxing contamination practices too much will result in another surge of cases.

Experience from other countries tells us that relaxing lockdown practices will result in a new epidemic. Reports from China and elsewhere are that these resurgences are minor compared to the original huge exponential growth of cases, but the illnesses and deaths from these resurgences must be considered when deciding when and how to relax lockdown practices.


Keeping the Children Learning at Home

Scholastic Learn at Home has a resource page for people with children out of school because of COVID-19 HERE and elsewhere; work with your school district and supplement that with web searches and local resources. To emphasize, your local school or school district will have information and recommendations for keeping your child's education progressing.

Videoconferencing?

Are you videoconferencing for meetings with co-workers, friends, or others? Videoconferencing is a topic in itself. A page on Videoconferencing is HERE.


Background COVID-19 virus graphic: By CDC/ Alissa Eckert, MS; Dan Higgins, MAM - This media comes from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Public Health Image Library (PHIL), with identification number #23312.Note: Not all PHIL images are public domain; be sure to check copyright status and credit authors and content providers., Public Domain, Link 

Some say that the "correct" name for theCOVID-19 virus is SARS-CoV-2.

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Page Last updated Tuesday, April 28, 2020