COVID-19 Page

Last updated Sunday, April 5, 2020


COVID-19 Situation Awareness LINKS

These links to COVID-19 information articles and gateways open in new tab or window.

Key Insights

Major insight from the Wikipedia article on the pandemic in the US is that the rate of spread depends very much on which State you are in:

COVID-19 Doubling vs. State

Graphic by Wikipedia user Getreuer - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link to larger graphic 

From the Wikipedia US pandemic article at "State, territorial and local response" HERE.

Another graphic from the same article shows CDC data:

CDC data plotted


Do the Five

Google Search has summarized WHO recommendations to minimize danger to yourself and others, and "Spread the Curve," as five points (distance doubled to six feet as per other recommendations, other minor edits):

Do

Don't

In addition, follow local directives and curfews, and keep excursions in public to an absolute minimum. Avoid crowds if at all possible.


Pandemic Overview

Since WHO characterized the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic on March 10 and the US CDC declared a national emergency on March 13, its spread is fast and inexorable. Just about every county in the US other than sparsely populated areas in the Rockies has reported COVID-19 infections. It's here, it's everywhere, it's contagious from apparently healthy people, and it's dangerous.

This is turning out much like the SARS outbreak of 2002-2003 and the MERS outbreak of 2012-2013, except that containment seems to be failing worldwide and the mortality is between 1% and 3.5%, or even higher when health care is not available. Compare this with that of the influenza virus mortality rate of 0.1%.

The Wikipedia article on the Influenza Pandemic of 1918 shows that the first wave, in March 1918, seemed much like previous pandemics with mortality rates of about 0.1%. The second wave, beginning in August 1918 and carrying on in smaller waves through 1920, had a much higher mortality and killed a worldwide total of between 50 and 100 million, a total comparable to WW II total deaths. This same higher mortality is seen in the current COVID-19 outbreak. Infections occasionally include a viral pneumonia stage, and availability of emergency medical care (oxygen, ventilators) if pneumonia sets in is necessary to maintain mortality at 1% or less.

The "flatten the curve" principle is the key to keeping the mortality rate to a minimum. This principle is that we slow the spread of COVID-19 so that medical resources are not overwhelmed, and reserves are always readily available for the seriously ill. Growth phases for outbreaks, if uncontrolled, seem to be about 30% increase in total cases every day, doubling the number of cases every 2.6 days. Controlling the growth of cases may not be possible everywhere, but it is possible in most of the US if we follow recommendations to minimize exposure, and self-isolate if we are ill with cold or flu-like symptoms. See Flatten the Curve for a good explanation of what we must do to slow the spread of COVID-19 and how that will help.

The uncontrolled spread rate is about 30% increase per day. With measures such as Do the Five, school and nonessential business closures, the spread rate decreases to under 20% a day. The growth phase continues exponential growth until the population is saturated with people that have already been infected or are inherently resistant, followed by a decrease in spread rate. This phase is most easily seen as a leveling-off in a semi-log plot (log of the number of cases versus day from the time that 100 cases were reported). See the plots above. Note that reported cases lag about a week behind infections.


Wikipedia Articles

I was analyzing data here but I find that the Wikipedia pages have more information and more analysis, and they are updated daily.

These articles include analysis and plots. Other Wikipedia articles focus on COVID-19 in Italy, India, and elsewhere. You can find articles on treatments, cures, and vaccination research on Wikipedia, and elsewhere with Internet searches.

Keeping the Children Learning at Home

Scholastic Learn at Home has a resource page for people with children out of school because of COVID-19 HERE.

Videoconferencing?

Are you videoconferencing for meetings with co-workers, friends, or others? Videoconferencing is a topic in itself. A page on Videoconferencing is HERE.


Background COVID-19 virus graphic: By CDC/ Alissa Eckert, MS; Dan Higgins, MAM - This media comes from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Public Health Image Library (PHIL), with identification number #23312.Note: Not all PHIL images are public domain; be sure to check copyright status and credit authors and content providers., Public Domain, Link 

Some say that the "correct" name for COVID-19 is SARS-CoV-2, which is used in some medical journal papers and such.

Replace this browser window with main page HERE. Come back to this page from a link on the main page that leaves both windows/tabs open.

Page Last updated Sunday, April 5, 2020